Are you prepared, or preparing, for a worst-case survival situation, such as a collapse of the power grid? If you are reading this, it’s likely that you are, or you’re at least starting to consider it. If you live anywhere near a nuclear power plant, have you ever wondered how it will fare if the grid goes down? So did we.
If you haven’t already, you should read our Grid-Down Survival post to understand the four most plausible causes of a nationwide grid collapse. The worst of those is an Electromagnetic Pulse attack (EMP) as it would put nuclear plants at the greatest immediate risk; however, a grid collapsed by any means will put nuclear plants at risk eventually. We’ll of course focus on the worst case, and assume the grid collapse is EMP-induced. That said, much of what is included below may be helpful if your local plant is compromised in any way, grid-down or otherwise.
In reference to the potential effects of a grid collapse caused by an EMP, the late Dr. Peter Pry, former Executive Director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security; CIA Intelligence Officer; government advisor; preeminent expert on EMP aftermath; (read: credible dude), stated, “In seven days, the over 100 nuclear power reactors run out of emergency power and go Fukushima, spreading radioactive plumes over the most populous half of the United States”. Nuclear EMP Attack
Yikes. Why seven days? Simple. That corresponds with the amount of diesel nuclear plants are required to keep on site for the backup generators. No generators means no cooling pumps; no cooling means imminent meltdown. Seven days, and that's if generators even survive the EMP. If the generators fail, you’re likely talking hours, not days, until meltdown. Yikes, again.
Dr. Pry refers to Fukushima. What actually happened there? Short answer: a power outage led to a nuclear meltdown. Yes, an earthquake and tsunami caused the outage and the failure of the backup generators, respectively, but it was the lack of electricity to power the cooling pumps that ultimately caused the meltdown.
*For those not particularly versed in the inner workings of nuclear power plants, reactors can be shut down quickly, meaning, no new reactions will occur; however, the fuel remains hot (and radioactive) for years, requiring a continuous flow of water for cooling which is provided by electric pumps. Without this cooling, fuel temperatures will climb to dangerous levels, boiling off the water that surrounds it, and literally melting the steel and concrete vessels it’s contained in. Explosions can occur that open the reactor to the atmosphere, but they aren’t nuclear explosions, per se, and won’t do significant damage beyond the plant itself…it’s the radioactive plume escaping from the breached reactor that you need to be concerned with.
Post Fukushima, many plants installed extra generators, and now include detailed plans to use fire trucks as an alternative method for pumping water over the reactors (which was tried in Fukushima, unsuccessfully, as more than half the water didn’t get to the reactor as it rerouted past an unpowered pump). Well-intentioned steps, perhaps, but the point may be moot, as generators with electronic ignitions and controls, and many modern vehicles, including fire trucks, may be disabled by an EMP. Regardless, if the generators and trucks are operable, how long can they run without a consistent means of refuelling? Outside of the diesel stored at the facility, there may be no option for obtaining additional fuel in a grid-down scenario. This, unfortunately, brings us right back to Dr. Pry’s seven-days-to-meltdown timeline.
The CANDU reactors used in each of Canada’s four nuclear power plants boast an impressive array of backup systems to deal with a loss of external power. Unfortunately, it could be said that they are prepared to win the last battle, but haven’t considered the challenges of what could possibly be the next battle…a grid collapse. The following video explains the CANDU safety systems, and is worth the 11 minutes to understand what happens when external power is lost. Understanding Nuclear Power Plants: Total Station Blackout At first blush the safety systems seem impressive; however, notice there is no autopilot…human input is required to keep the plant stable, particularly if they opt to keep one reactor online to power the cooling of the others. While heroics were a factor in Chernobyl and Fukushima, how long can we expect plant workers to remain while their families are in danger at home? Will relief shifts even be coming in? Are there provisions to feed employees who choose to stick it out? How about drinking water? Even if they shut all the reactors down, and rely on the generators, how do they get refuelled? Same for the fire trucks. Where’s the perpetual supply of diesel going to come from? The timelines for recovery from a nationwide collapse of the grid isn’t days, weeks, or even months…it’s in the years. Perhaps this is why it isn’t talked about in the context of nuclear plant emergencies…it’s simply too great a challenge to overcome, or a ‘beyond design-basis accident’, in engineering parlance.
“Beyond design-basis accidents: The term is used as a technical way to discuss accident sequences that are possible, but not fully considered in the design process because they were judged to be too unlikely.” Beyond Design-basis Accidents | NRC.gov
Fair enough…at the time when most plants were designed and built, nationwide grid collapse wasn’t viewed as a realistic concern; however, it is now considered a real possibility, whether it be caused by an EMP, cyber, or physical attack, or from a high-energy solar event (CME) that scientists agree is a certainty at some point in our future. Even with this greater awareness of our vulnerability, and the talks around it that have occurred within the American government, we at WCSB don’t believe that enough will be done to protect the grid and rectify this critical weakness of nuclear plants. In a grid collapse, many millions are predicted to die from starvation, disease, and violence as it is, even without the added cherry-on-top of radioactive plumes. It’s almost too big a problem to fix. That puts survival back into the laps of the individual citizens, which relates directly to the next challenge: getting out of Dodge.
Evacuation will be problematic when plants are near dense populations. The Pickering Nuclear Generating Station, bordering Canada’s most populous city, Toronto, has more than a quarter-million residents in its 10-km radius Detailed Planning Zone (the US employs a 10-mile radius for its evacuation planning; hopefully radiation respects the fact that we use the metric system in Canada and limits its spread accordingly). The population in Pickering’s 50-km Ingestion Planning Zone is in the millions. Anyone who has driven the area knows the roads are over capacity already with morning and afternoon commuter traffic, and that’s just ‘normal’ volume; one can only imagine how jammed the roads will be if everyone is trying to get out at the same time, fuelled by urgency and panic. And hey, staying on brand for the Worst-Case Survival Blog, we may as well assume traffic signals aren’t operating, and the roads are obstructed by EMP-damaged vehicles. Vehicular carnage and fist-fights in the streets can be expected. Not ideal.
So if the grid collapses, or something else triggers an emergency at your local nuclear plant, how far away do you need to go to be safe? You should look first at the emergency plan that covers your area to see if you are in any of the specified zones. There may also be value in looking at past meltdowns to see what evacuation radii were used there.
3 Mile Island (partial meltdown), 1979: 20 mile voluntary evacuation, most returned within the month
Chernobyl, 1986: 30 km exclusion zone remains in place today
Fukushima, 2011: 20 km mandatory evacuation order and subsequent exclusion zone affecting 160,000 people; exclusion zone reduced incrementally over the years; 30,000 former residents are still not permitted to return to their homes due to radiation levels
The above distances are patterned in concentric circles; however, wind plays a factor, as radioactive plumes are carried by air currents. Which way does the wind normally blow where you are? This may cause you issues even if you are outside of the evacuation areas, or conversely, lessen your risk if you are fortunate enough to be upwind. If you live near a nuclear plant, you should prepare yourself for mandatory evacuation, or as we recommend, to voluntarily evacuate at your first opportunity.
How will you be notified of a nuclear emergency? Ontario cell phone users got to see what this would look like when a false alarm was triggered in 2020. False Alarm at Pickering Nuclear Plant But if the power is out, and electronics such as cellphones are inoperable, how might you receive shelter-in-place, or evacuation orders? The aforementioned Pickering power plant uses an auto-dialler to call landlines within a 10-km radius (landlines usually work in a blackout, but can’t be counted on to survive an EMP); if radiation is released, pole-mounted sirens will also be wailing throughout a 3-km radius of the plant (battery powered, hopefully). Region of Durham public alerting system These alerts aside, we believe that if you live near a nuclear plant, and your power is out and electronics aren’t working (meaning, we may have been EMPed), our best advice is to assume the plant is at risk, take your KI pills, and hit the road. KI tablets available for all area residents living near nuclear generating stations - Region of Durham
If your local plant does release radiation before you’ve had a chance to get away, and you are aware of it, what should you do? Simply put, stay indoors; windows closed; ventilation off; 24 hours minimum. What to Do During a Radiation Emergency: Get Inside | CDC While the CDC offers some good advice about how to protect yourself after a nuclear accident, we vehemently disagree with the following advice:
“Stay where you are! Going outside to get loved ones could expose you and them to dangerous levels of radiation…Schools, daycares, hospitals, nursing homes, and other places have emergency plans in place to keep people safe at the facility.”
We can assure you that schools and daycares do not have plans in place to deal with a nationwide blackout and subsequent meltdown of nuclear plants; it will be pandemonium there, just as it will be in the streets. You may only have a small window to collect your loved ones before meltdown…use it wisely. Make your own decisions, but if you are the kind of person who would follow the CDC’s advice and hide in your basement while you hope someone else is protecting and comforting your kids, you don’t belong here. We are not your people. If the grid goes down and stays down, risking your life for your family will become a regular occurrence…you may as well get used to it!
In conclusion, if you live near a nuclear power plant, you should have relocation plans and be ready to go on short notice. Further, (and this one sucks) you should prepare yourself for the possibility that you may never return, should your local plant go full Fukushima, as Dr. Pry predicted they will. Wish we had better news, but there’s no upside to this one. It’s yet another way that our reliance on electricity threatens our very existence. That off-grid cabin looks better every day…