While there are many important elements to survival, we at Worst-Case Survival Blog think it can be reduced to four main categories: Food, Water, Shelter, and Security. If you have all four, you can get through anything. We urge everyone to consider the Big 4 relative to their situation to identify any shortcomings. Don’t assume that you have no hope if you aren’t a ten-out-of-ten in every category…just seek out those who can offset your weaknesses, and perhaps double-down on your strengths so others can see the value that you bring to the table. More to come on that in our ‘Mutual Assistance Groups’ post.
One of the worst-case scenarios we see negatively impacting the Big 4 is, no surprise here, a grid collapse. No grid equals no commercial food production or supply, no municipal water, no enforcement of the rule of law, and increased victimization at the hands of desperate or opportunistic people. Combined or on their own, any of these factors could drive you from your home, making a lack of shelter an additional threat to your life, particularly if you’re in a cold climate. We’ll unpack each of the Big 4 a bit here, offering our views on each.
Food: How long could you feed your family if there were no stores to shop at? We don’t mean Covid-style inconveniences, we’re talking zero food availability outside your home (we’re the Worst-Case Survival Blog, after all). We’ve created a rating system that might help you evaluate your state of food preparedness. We acknowledge that the first step is a big one, but we think it’s sound practice to aim for at least the ‘Good’ level, even if you can’t get there overnight.
Good: Sufficient reserves of basic, life-sustaining calories to keep everyone in your family alive when there are no other sources of food available. Rice and beans will do the trick. It doesn’t need to be fancy or appetizing…this is about survival. If you have the skills and tools to transition to harvesting food, the reserves should be at least enough to get you through winter, as it could be November when the lights go out (bad time to grow or gather). As such, our recommendation is a minimum 6-month supply of basic food reserves for everyone you plan to feed.
Better: Improve the nutritional value and variety of food in your reserves (pasta, oats, canned fruit/vegetables/tuna, etc.) and keep a larger supply to give you a buffer as you transition into harvest mode.
Best: More. Just more. At least a year’s worth of food for everyone you intend to feed. Maybe you learn you’re a crappy hunter, or can’t seem to get a garden growing the way you hoped. Apart from the initial expense, there is no downside to having more food. If you don’t intend to transition to harvesting food at any point, then we believe a one-year supply of food should be your minimum goal. Society will not be bouncing back from a grid collapse any sooner than that.
If you are discouraged by the cost of stockpiling food, and decide that it just isn’t doable for you, we encourage you to at least consider stocking up on rice and beans. We see it as the least expensive way to stay alive in a grid-down scenario. It may suck to eat the same meal day after day, but starvation sucks more. An 8-kg (17.6 lb) bag of white rice generates 200 servings, and is currently less than $15. Pork and beans are around a dollar per 398 ml (15 oz) can when bundled in cases of 12 (which makes storage easier). At 3.5 servings per can, that case of beans gets you 42 servings for $12.
Quick calculations:
At 7.5 cents per serving for rice, and 28.5 cents for beans, that’s 36 cents per meal, per person. Three meals a day of that with a pine-needle-tea chaser for your Vitamin C, and you’ve avoided starvation that month for $32.40. You’re not living it up, but you’re alive. For $32.40 a month.
Water: It’s easy to come by when systems are functioning, but if the power goes out and the pumps aren’t running, do you know where you will get your water? There are significant differences here between water that is pumped to you by a municipality, and water that comes from a well on your own property. They both stop flowing with a grid collapse, but that’s about where the similarities end.
Municipal: These systems are highly dependent on electricity to purify and pump water to your home. If your municipality utilizes water towers, you have a bit of time, but pumps are still needed to push water up the tower. Most municipalities will have generators to ensure they can provide uninterrupted service through normal blackouts, but grid collapse isn’t a normal blackout, and once the diesel in the generators runs out, that’s it. If you plan to shelter in place indefinitely, you are going to need to identify somewhere nearby to collect water, as it is nearly impossible to store enough. That said, every trip outside in a grid-down scenario brings an elevated risk of harm, and leaves your home less guarded. We’ll leave that to the reader to evaluate their own risk level. Rainwater collection will help keep you home, but you are at the mercy of the weather, and we don’t advise counting on it for your primary water supply. If you have limited access to water where you live, you may want to make relocation plans now, and not wait until the die-from-dehydration clock is counting down, because it really doesn’t take long.
If you decide to go the storage route, there are lots of options. At the very least, we recommend that everyone stock up on the commercially bottled 5-gallon jugs, as they are sterilized and sealed, giving them a long shelf life. Plus, they have the advantage of being portable, so you can take some with you if you relocate. There are stackable 55-gallon barrels commercially available, which are an option if you have the space and a floor that can take the weight (they’re over 450 lbs each when full).
FEMA recommends that you store a two-week supply of water in the amount of one gallon per person, per day, for hydration, cooking, and hygiene. Food and Water in an Emergency If you do the math on that, one 55-gallon drum of water will last a family of four about two weeks. That makes relying on stored water for an extended period of time likely not feasible for most. And those numbers don’t include flushing toilets manually, if that’s even an option for you (pouring water into the tank to refill it between flushes). On that note, if you live downhill from your municipal sewer treatment facility, gravity is your enemy. Not only have you lost the manual flush option, but if the electric pumps that usually move waste uphill aren’t operating, you may be facing backflow issues. There’s plenty of information online on how to ensure backflow can’t enter your house; look into it if you think this might affect you. Officials Warn Power Outages Could Cause Major Sewage Spills - Los Angeles Times
Living on municipal water and sewer are convenient when everything functions as it should. But once again, you trade off independence for this convenience. If it’s a full-on, grid-down scenario, relocating to somewhere with better water availability may be your best option. If relocating just isn’t possible for you, recognize your challenges and plan accordingly.
Dug/drilled well: Country homes that have their own wells will have challenges too. Do you have a way to get water out of the ground without electricity powering the pump? A generator could buy you some time, but the noise may draw some unwanted attention. A solar powered battery pack may be the ticket, if it’s powerful enough. Either way, you’ll need to connect the backup power source to your electrical panel, as the well pump itself will likely be hardwired (therefore no simple way to plug it in). Our official advice is to hire an electrician to set this up, although the internet will provide you with instructions of how to backfeed power into your system using a double-male extension cord (aka suicide cord). So yes, our only advice here is to hire a pro.
Do you have a dug well (shallow with round concrete lid)? A traditional hand pump can be installed on top as a secondary way to draw water. There are also products available to pump water out of the deeper, drilled wells. Just remember that if you pump water directly out of your well, you are bypassing any filtration and purification systems that may be in place, so you’ll need to take steps to ensure the water is safe to drink (could be as simple as boiling it before use). If you are on a standalone well, you likely have a gravity-fed septic system of your own too. If you are drawing water from the well by hand, use buckets to bring water into the house and you should be able to manually flush toilets without a problem.
In either scenario, urban or rural, you may still need to leave your home at some point. Water is too heavy to be carried in significant quantities…you’ll have to be able to find natural sources. The challenge will be ensuring it is drinkable. Fortunately, this has already been figured out by the camping crowd. Just search ‘portable water filter’ online and decide what system works best for you. At minimum, we think every person in your group should carry a LifeStraw. LifeStraw Personal Water Filter for Hiking, Camping, Travel, and Emergency Preparedness (4 Piece) : Amazon.ca
The current availability of water makes it too easy to take it for granted. Determine now where and how you’ll get your water if the grid is down so you don’t get caught unprepared (and thirsty).
Shelter: Your home may be the first step in this consideration, but don’t let your thinking stop there. What if you had to relocate? Do you have a way to create a temporary shelter if needed? This could be as simple as owning basic camping gear. Vehicles make a good starting point for shelter too. If protection from people or wildlife is a concern where you are, you have more protection inside a locked car than in a tent. Plus, if the vehicle is drivable, sleep in the driver’s seat and be ready to jet if you need to. You can also improvise shelters in the wilderness in a pinch; keep some tarps and cordage on hand to simplify this.
If you do intend to stay in your home, is it defensible? Most residential doors are made for looks more than security, and can be easily kicked in. Even if you reinforce and/or barricade your doors, what about all the windows? It is nearly impossible to make your house impenetrable to someone who is determined to get in. This is why security follows closely behind shelter…ideally, you’ll have a way to convince people that it’s a bad idea to break into your house, and a way to respond effectively if they do.
Security: In a time of crisis, desperate people who haven’t prepared will take from those who have. Do you have a way to defend your supplies? Because it’s not just ‘stuff’ at that point; if someone steals your food, they are literally creating a direct threat to your life. You may also have to protect yourself and your loved ones from opportunistic predators who attempt to capitalize on a perceived lack of consequences for their actions, doing whatever they want to whomever they want (much in the way occupying armies have done throughout time, even today). Firearms are one answer, even if they are just presented towards someone who is a threat; hopefully you won’t be forced to actually pull the trigger, but you should think about that ahead of time…what is your line in the sand? If firearms are not a viable option for you, then perhaps you can try to have your security assured by being part of a larger group (strength in numbers), and/or by aligning yourself with those who are competent in the use of firearms.
Conclusion: In our current North American climate of comfort, we can be easily lulled into a false sense of security and kept distracted by our busy lives, without having to commit time or money towards the Big 4. We take for granted that we can buy food when we’re hungry; that water comes out of the tap when we need it; that we have a roof over our head; that our security needs are provided by agents of the state. Why should we spend money on supplies and preparations for something that may never happen? Well, because ‘may never happen’ doesn’t mean ‘could never happen’. That’s what sets the prepared apart from the unprepared: the prepared aren’t willing to risk their family’s survival on fragile systems. The prepared sleep well knowing that their loved ones will be fed, watered, sheltered, and protected no matter what man or nature throws at them. Address the Big 4 of Survival alone or with like-minded people, then put it out of your mind and go on with your life. If it all comes tumbling down, you’ll be ready. If it doesn’t in your lifetime, even better. When it comes to supplies and plans, we subscribe to the adage that it's better to have them and not need them, then to need them and not have them.